"Given they hold 19.9%, they can also make changes to management/board, and slowly acquire more shares over the years to come under the "creep" provisions. Time is on Svava's side."
If, after this courtship exercise, no acquirer ends up owning all the shares on issue, then stock price is going to end up being a lot lower than where it is today.
Svava have self-wedged; assuming they have their funding lined up, they will need to pony up with a formal 28c offer (which the SWF Board will be compelled to recommend).
The ball will then be back in BFG's court, and I think there is a modest chance (say, 25%), that BFG counter with an improved offer, probably facilitated with a scrip sweetener.
As a reminder of the takeover appeal calculus:
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I always thought a bidding war had the potential to break out; it just took a bit longer than I expected.
But, clearly, there are still a few more arias to be sung before the curtain falls on this particular takeover opera.
.
Ann: Non-binding indicative proposal from Svava $0.28 per share, page-8
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