CAA capral limited
Add to My Watchlist 0.92% ! $9.89

$7.00 would appear to be an opportunistic bid... think the $205...

  1. TazD
    406 Posts.
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    14/04/21
    11:48
    Post #: 52455759
    $7.00 would appear to be an opportunistic bid... think the $205 valuation could be a tad high. I have included calc's for this valuation below.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3089/3089895-7f39c1c7e3768674d132f238cb49c13f.jpg

    Share Price vs. Fair Value

    Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Capral.

    ASX:CAA Discounted Cash Flow Data SourcesData PointSourceValueValuation Model
    2 Stage Free Cash Flow to EquityLevered Free Cash FlowExtrapolated from most recent financials.See belowDiscount Rate (Cost of Equity)See below10.0%Perpetual Growth Rate5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate2.0%

    An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

    Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:CAAData PointCalculation/ SourceResultRisk-Free Rate5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate2.0%Equity Risk PremiumS&P Global5.2%Metals and Mining Unlevered BetaSimply Wall St/ S&P Global1.08Re-levered Beta= 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
    = 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.077) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (95.97%))]1.536Levered BetaLevered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
    (practical range for a stable firm)1.536Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
    = 2.01% + (1.536 * 5.23%)10.04%


    Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ASX:CAA using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

    The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Capral is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

    ASX:CAA DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
    Levered FCF (AUD, Millions)SourcePresent Value
    Discounted (@ 10.04%)202180.89Est @ 77.72%73.512022125.38Est @ 55.01%103.542023174.42Est @ 39.11%130.892024223.22Est @ 27.98%152.232025268.28Est @ 20.19%166.262026307.81Est @ 14.73%173.352027341.42Est @ 10.92%174.732028369.57Est @ 8.25%171.882029393.12Est @ 6.37%166.152030413.04Est @ 5.07%158.63Present value of next 10 years cash flowsA$1,471


    ASX:CAA DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
    CalculationResultTerminal ValueFCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
    = A$413.036 x (1 + 2.01%) ÷ (10.04% - 2.01% )A$5,245.57Present Value of Terminal Value= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
    A$5,246 ÷ (1 + 10.04%)10A$2,014.64


    ASX:CAA Total Equity Value
    CalculationResultTotal Equity Value= Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
    = A$1,471 + A$2,015A$3,485.64Equity Value per Share
    (AUD)= Total value / Shares Outstanding
    = A$3,486 / 17A$205.95
    ASX:CAA Discount to Share Price
    CalculationResultValue per share (AUD)From above.A$205.95Current discountDiscount to share price of A$6.14
    = (A$205.95 - A$6.14) / A$205.95    97.0%

    CAA Price at posting: $7.32 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
    Likes Created with Sketch. 2  Upvote
    lightbulb Created with Sketch.  Great analysis
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Last
$9.89 		Change
0.090(0.92%) 		Mkt cap ! $167.8M
Open High Low Value Volume
$9.80 $9.90 $9.80 $66.32K 6.741K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 1000 $9.80
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$9.89 1799 1
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Last trade - 14.46pm 03/04/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
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