Ann: NON-BINDING INDICATIVE PROPOSAL RECEIVED FROM ALLEGRO, page-20

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stoneral33

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14/04/21

13:17

Post #: 52458870
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Originally posted by TazD: ↑

$7.00 would appear to be an opportunistic bid... think the $205 valuation could be a tad high. I have included calc's for this valuation below.

Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Capral.
ASX:CAA Discounted Cash Flow Data SourcesData PointSourceValueValuation Model
2 Stage Free Cash Flow to EquityLevered Free Cash FlowExtrapolated from most recent financials.See belowDiscount Rate (Cost of Equity)See below10.0%Perpetual Growth Rate5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate2.0%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:CAAData PointCalculation/ SourceResultRisk-Free Rate5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate2.0%Equity Risk PremiumS&P Global5.2%Metals and Mining Unlevered BetaSimply Wall St/ S&P Global1.08Re-levered Beta= 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.077) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (95.97%))]1.536Levered BetaLevered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)1.536Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.01% + (1.536 * 5.23%)10.04%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation forASX:CAAusing2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Capral is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
ASX:CAA DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (AUD, Millions)SourcePresent Value
Discounted (@ 10.04%)202180.89Est @ 77.72%73.512022125.38Est @ 55.01%103.542023174.42Est @ 39.11%130.892024223.22Est @ 27.98%152.232025268.28Est @ 20.19%166.262026307.81Est @ 14.73%173.352027341.42Est @ 10.92%174.732028369.57Est @ 8.25%171.882029393.12Est @ 6.37%166.152030413.04Est @ 5.07%158.63Present value of next 10 years cash flowsA$1,471

ASX:CAA DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
CalculationResultTerminal ValueFCF₂₀₃₀× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= A$413.036 x (1 + 2.01%) ÷ (10.04% - 2.01% )A$5,245.57Present Value of Terminal Value= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)¹⁰
A$5,246 ÷ (1 + 10.04%)¹⁰A$2,014.64

ASX:CAA Total Equity Value
CalculationResultTotal Equity Value= Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= A$1,471 + A$2,015A$3,485.64Equity Value per Share
(AUD)= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= A$3,486 / 17A$205.95
ASX:CAA Discount to Share Price
CalculationResultValue per share (AUD)From above.A$205.95Current discountDiscount to share price of A$6.14
= (A$205.95 - A$6.14) / A$205.9597.0%

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only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.. great deal for the directors plus their divvies..plus their over the top coin they're on..

CAA Price at posting: $7.30 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $9.55		Change 0.020(0.21%)		Mkt cap ! $164.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$9.55	$9.55	$9.12	$75.58K	8.08K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1095	$9.15

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$9.59	96	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1095	9.150
1	110	9.090
1	1000	9.010
1	75	9.000
1	1000	8.900

Price($)	Vol.	No.
9.590	96	1
9.600	2588	1
9.700	374	1
9.720	915	1
9.800	299	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 31/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

CAA (ASX) Chart

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Ann: NON-BINDING INDICATIVE PROPOSAL RECEIVED FROM ALLEGRO, page-20

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