CAA capral limited

0.46%

$10.88

that valuation is straight from Simply Wall Street and like many...

First 23 Last

PortfolioPlus

4,546 Posts.

435

14/04/21

15:29

Post #: 52463763

Originally posted by TazD: ↑
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Capral.
ASX:CAA Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model
2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Extrapolated from most recent financials. See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 10.0%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 2.0%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:CAA
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 2.0%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.2%
Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.08
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.077) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (95.97%))] 1.536
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 1.536
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.01% + (1.536 * 5.23%) 10.04%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation forASX:CAAusing2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Capral is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
ASX:CAA DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast

Levered FCF (AUD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 10.04%)
2021 80.89 Est @ 77.72% 73.51
2022 125.38 Est @ 55.01% 103.54
2023 174.42 Est @ 39.11% 130.89
2024 223.22 Est @ 27.98% 152.23
2025 268.28 Est @ 20.19% 166.26
2026 307.81 Est @ 14.73% 173.35
2027 341.42 Est @ 10.92% 174.73
2028 369.57 Est @ 8.25% 171.88
2029 393.12 Est @ 6.37% 166.15
2030 413.04 Est @ 5.07% 158.63
Present value of next 10 years cash flows A$1,471

ASX:CAA DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value

Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF₂₀₃₀× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= A$413.036 x (1 + 2.01%) ÷ (10.04% - 2.01% ) A$5,245.57
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)¹⁰
A$5,246 ÷ (1 + 10.04%)¹⁰ A$2,014.64

ASX:CAA Total Equity Value

Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= A$1,471 + A$2,015 A$3,485.64
Equity Value per Share
(AUD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= A$3,486 / 17 A$205.95
ASX:CAA Discount to Share Price

Calculation Result
Value per share (AUD) From above. A$205.95
Current discount Discount to share price of A$6.14
= (A$205.95 - A$6.14) / A$205.95 97.0%
Expand
that valuation is straight from Simply Wall Street and like many of their valuations it is simply bullsh**
of course $7 is straight out thievery and our directors have much to answer for at this price. But offers can be revised. I have sent an email in expressing my dissatisfaction. There’s got to be at least an extra 50c to $1 here.

CAA Price at posting: $7.32 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $10.88		Change -0.050(0.46%)		Mkt cap ! $180.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$10.94	$10.94	$10.79	$122.2K	11.25K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	76	$10.55

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$10.88	51	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	76	10.550
1	384	10.400
1	1000	10.310
1	2500	10.230
1	2000	10.120

Price($)	Vol.	No.
10.880	51	1
10.900	469	1
10.920	8622	2
10.930	2346	1
10.940	1441	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 19/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

CAA (ASX) Chart

that valuation is straight from Simply Wall Street and like many...

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Data Point	Source	Value
Valuation Model		2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow	Extrapolated from most recent financials.	See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity)	See below	10.0%
Perpetual Growth Rate	5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate	2.0%

Data Point	Calculation/ Source	Result
Risk-Free Rate	5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate	2.0%
Equity Risk Premium	S&P Global	5.2%
Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta	Simply Wall St/ S&P Global	1.08
Re-levered Beta	= 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))] = 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.077) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (95.97%))]	1.536
Levered Beta	Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm)	1.536
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity	= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium) = 2.01% + (1.536 * 5.23%)	10.04%

	Levered FCF (AUD, Millions)	Source	Present Value Discounted (@ 10.04%)
2021	80.89	Est @ 77.72%	73.51
2022	125.38	Est @ 55.01%	103.54
2023	174.42	Est @ 39.11%	130.89
2024	223.22	Est @ 27.98%	152.23
2025	268.28	Est @ 20.19%	166.26
2026	307.81	Est @ 14.73%	173.35
2027	341.42	Est @ 10.92%	174.73
2028	369.57	Est @ 8.25%	171.88
2029	393.12	Est @ 6.37%	166.15
2030	413.04	Est @ 5.07%	158.63
Present value of next 10 years cash flows			A$1,471

	Calculation	Result
Terminal Value	FCF₂₀₃₀× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) = A$413.036 x (1 + 2.01%) ÷ (10.04% - 2.01% )	A$5,245.57
Present Value of Terminal Value	= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)¹⁰ A$5,246 ÷ (1 + 10.04%)¹⁰	A$2,014.64

	Calculation	Result
Total Equity Value	= Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value = A$1,471 + A$2,015	A$3,485.64
Equity Value per Share (AUD)	= Total value / Shares Outstanding = A$3,486 / 17	A$205.95

	Calculation	Result
Value per share (AUD)	From above.	A$205.95
Current discount	Discount to share price of A$6.14 = (A$205.95 - A$6.14) / A$205.95	97.0%

that valuation is straight from Simply Wall Street and like many...

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