Hi @SP007I think GQG fair future value is $2.19. That would mean...

Hi @SP007

I think GQG fair future value is $2.19. That would mean GQG is valued at 15 times estimated FY24 DPS of AUD14.6c (DPS is close enough to EPS due to high payout ratio). This assumes dividends to PAC of $AUD17.5M approx.

GQG DPS is forecast to be AUD16c in FY25. At 15 times earnings, then $2.40.

Note, GQG always exceed historical forecasts.

The growth of VPC will be more than GQG, higher rating should be attributed. We need to see what PAC’s fair value is.

If GQG is paying $AUD17.5M to PAC and we have been advised by PAC management that VPC will exceed this then applying 15 times earnings to $AUD20M then a $AUD300M valuation if VPC is reasonable therefore high $5’s, maybe $6. I have made an assumption that VPC will generate $AUD20M based on what PAC management have said.

PAC has always been deeply undervalued. This offer discounts future earnings of boutiques and the PAC business. Phil King is very shrewd and knows the PAC business very well already. He wouldn’t be paying fair value and knows it is an undervalued business.