Assuming the MOU is converted to a legal agreement in '24, this is the best bit of news from Astron in many, many years.....the market value of their half share in the Donald project has just been established, being just over AUD$200m. This does not include the Jackson deposit. They've effectively raised project equity at roughly $1.30/share, well in excess of what was otherwise looking to be heavy dilution at the mid-50 cent mark.
Astron have JV'd with someone who can now halve the risk that comes with taking on all that project debt. It also means that between now and when they receive their first revenue, they will similarly only have to raise roughly half the funds needed to run their operation.
They have secured the offtake agreement for all of the product with their JV, so their interests are 100% aligned. Energy Fuels are large, listed and debt free. They have operating knowledge of downstream processing. Guaranteed they'll add expertise in reducing costs over time. They are American thus geopolitically the right fit.....so many boxes ticked here, de-risking across so many areas being the biggie.
The NPV of the combined Stages 1 and 2 has been estimated at AUD$2.2bn. Halve that, and we come up now with $1.1bn net present value for each of Astron and Energy Fuels for Donald. This is obviously a solid win/win for both parties.
Assuming ATR will continue raising equity to say, 200m shares on issue by 2026, and assuming their feasibility estimates aren't rubbery, we could end up with an intrinsic valuation of $5 per share, especially without all that risk they would have been carrying.
This valuation also doesn't include the inevitable huge uplift in value to their Chinese processing operations.
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