I'll be participating in the rights issue. Here are my...

I'll be participating in the rights issue.

Here are my speculative thoughts on GNM. DYOR.

• Total Resource is approx 62% indicated and GNM is trading at a 100% discount to inferred peers. Current fair value as at today's close is 1.8c.
• Assuming they add 120 koz with drilling during 2021 this would make fair value $0.03.
  • This would lift resource to 300 koz
  • A resource at 300 koz size at 60% conversion of resource to reserve (noting currently 62% indicated), would support a LOM of 5 years assuming 32 koz pa. That would be revenue $61M per annum (or 7.5x current market cap ). I have used 75% recovery to keep it conservative as heap leaching may factor in their plans for processing (however this would be low CAPEX). We know from the annual report that they are planning to use ore sorting technologies so I think we will see this considered in the scoping study (ore sorting would help to lift cut-off grade).
  • A 5-year life of mine to start with would support 27 Koz pa (based on 60% resource to reserve, 75% recovery) which would equate to revenue around $61M at current gold price ( that's over 5x current market cap ).
• Scoping Study Q4 2021 => PFS Q4 2022 => DFS Q4 2023 and given small scale and small capex expected this could be producing in 2024.
  • Speculatively I think by time of DFS project could easily be at a resource of 500 koz and on assumptions above ( 5 year LOM, 60% resource to reserve, 75% recovery ) then production at 45 koz pa would be revenue $102M pa at current gold price.

I think a nimble low-capex project could comfortably achieve AISC under $1,100 per ounce, noting GNM are likely to consider a combination of ore sorting, toll processing and/or heap leach. This would allow low capex, fast payback and a bullish IRR.

I'm keen for the company to set aggressive IRR and payback targets for this project in their plans for the scoping study.