It's a great question- and it's on all of our minds!
Apart from what @piwi33 and @2020Mustang have stated I think it really important to note that market conditions & sentiment will greatly influence.
We traded at 50c in April 2021- before Gobi H2 became a thing, well before the Nomgon pilot and Grandis (with it's 395bcf 2C contingent resource) We currently trade at 8c.....and are on the cusp of a literal "game changing" appraisal of Grandis AND a slow but steady dewatering process at Nomgon, applying lessons learnt with N8 & N9. We then even had a mad Russian tyrant invade Ukraine- heightening global energy security fears- spiking oil and gas prices.
Are we not arguably substantially better off in terms of asset value now (at 8c) than we were back at a very frothy 50c?
We were in the prime "woke" period in 2021- so it's not like folk suddenly sold their EXR shares because we're evil fossil fuel f'tards. It's a lack of positive sentiment (and impatience)
I think we've seen a bit of Game Stop Reddit type speculative folk exit, realising the O&G exploration game is very long winded and highly risky. That might account for a bit, but the biggest factor I think is that we are just plain old fashioned un-sexy as a sector. We've seen investor retail money chase battery metals (and of late, WA billionaires!) but we are essentially unloved.
But like everything, markets and sentiment are cyclical. A prime example is Crypto- once the flavour of the month, then in the doldrums.....mark my words- 2024 will see Crypto explode again- and the money allocation will be way way bigger than one can currently conceive.
Oil and Gas will soon enough be flavour of the month (and eventually again- Green Hydrogen- especially if there is a Mongolian Government and/or Rio catalyst)
So- the big unknown RE: sp is- what is the market sentiment like at the time/s of:
Grandis initial appraisal
Grandis flow testing
Grandis resource appraisal uplift and hopefully a Proven allocation
Potential partnership from Santos evolving from the data sharing agreement
Potential big boy interest in a T/O of Grandis
Nomgon pilot results
A Mongolian government policy mandate on greener energy supply and/or a Rio MOU/deal.
With a prevailing wind and strong "animal spirits" coupled with more awareness from the "market" that gas is actually essential, and here to stay for decades to come and is the prime enabler of the energy transition AND by association, investing in oil & gas producers (lower risk) or explores (higher risk but potential outsized alpha returns) is probably a smart thing as a portion of a portfolio, then maybe we have a bit of steam.
36c is a threshold of resistance given the SPP......it will be interesting to see what happens if/when we get back there.
Anyway- the TLDR short answer is "$2.40" per share
EXR Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
