AW1 4.00% 12.0¢ american west metals limited

It's a pretty bold statement to suggest the copper price is not...

  1. 2,354 Posts.
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    It's a pretty bold statement to suggest the copper price is not going up 46 months from now. Yes they were pretty vague but you need only take one look at the copper supply situation to immediately ask the question:

    Where are they going to get extra supply from?

    It's not like there's a supply of cheap indonesian nickel laterites that can be turned on via HPAL conversion, even if cobre panama came back online it would only add a extra 1-2% to global supply. Grades declining, higher opex from digging deeper to get ore....

    And on the demand side, let's say you don't buy into electrification or the EV revolution. Let's say you're a bear and think that narrative will completely collapse.

    Are you also suggesting that the industrialisation of India, Africa and the Middle East will completely stop? There are long term trends there that even a big anti-electrification bull would be forced to concede. And you don't even need all to come online for a dramatic movement in demand.

    There's plenty of public data about the dire situation in copper due to years of underinvestment. And by your own argument which you happily post around here all the time, mines take ages to be permitted. So are mines suddenly going to get instant permitting in this scenario?
 
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