CYM 5.41% 3.5¢ cyprium metals limited

Ann: Noosa Conference Presentation, page-10

  1. 1,471 Posts.
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    BH,

    Thanks kindly for the above insights.

    For disgruntled SHs, please note that the Noosa Conference presentations are only 10 minutes long. I watched online and agree that Matt's 10 mins were ho-hum and didn't reveal anything new. Saying that, the real intel was to be gleaned via convos at the presenter booths, so we are fortunate that BH was there to chat with the team and share some content here. Much appreciated, mate.

    Time is of the essence now for Cyprium. I suspect the imminent quarterly will show that cash has dropped below the A$10m mark. While I was pleased to read your following comment: "with the prepayment, a debt funder may assist in cleaning up the balance sheet and funding the small scale restart" - I can't help but shake the feeling that a capital raising is imminent (unless they get a wriggle on). I'd hope they have learnt from history re: running cash levels to zero and punting the company's survival on an external funding deal like Baz & Wayne. As much as I don't want any more dilution, I would prefer that over suspension.

    Ideally, they need to release a steady news flow and build on the recent share price momentum that saw us hit 5.6c and bring the oppies into the money. If all options & warrants are exercised, they can realise $29m in cash. As a large shareholder, I am sure Matt is cognisant of not wanting to blow out the capital structure any more than it already has been, however, they don't have the luxury of time at the moment. And the longer they take, the further the SP will drift - meaning the oppies/warrants conversion option becomes less likely and a capital raising more likely. I'd hoped we wouldn't see any more dilution this year, but am becoming more resigned to that now.

    Re: off-take. I trust they have other options on the table than solely that of a mercenary commodity trader in Glencore. Many of us can recall how Glencore stuffed us around 2 years ago. And any binding off-take with Glencore will come with onerous strings attached ("subject to conditions precedent") - which will almost certainly include a significantly dilutionary capital raise. Glencore enjoys squeezing cash-constrained juniors - have a look at how they have played Galan Lithium - after signing a binding off-take and financing prepayment facility back in November 2023. 8 months on and crickets re: funding. As you mentioned, BH, Matt & Ross are both well connected on the finance side - so I am counting on them to secure a solid funding deal for Cyprium.

    An off-take with decent prepayment with a semi-reputable player, a minimal cap raising, oppies/warrants in the money and exercised and those near-term maturities cleaned up - looks to be how things will play out in the next few months. Matt deserves to be under pressure and there is zero margin for error this time - given our $51.5m in liabilities. Still a huge amount of risk here, but also a great opportunity if one believes they will secure a funding deal for a clean up of the balance sheet and a quick restart. Excited and nervous in equal measure.

    Thanks again, BH.
 
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