Appreciate your response and wasn't initially going to respond but given the AGM today (which I haven't watched) perhaps JM is giving a clue of how much metakaolin is expected to replace clinker with the LC3:
I looked at LC3 last year and here are two links to help understand what this looks like, HOLCIM have already adopted this approach in Europe albeit I belive at quite a small level given their size, well worth a read:
I think your numbers are a little too optimistic when it comes to both sale value, $300, and then volumes of Metakaolin sold to HOLCIM.
As an approx. number, Australia goes through about 10m tonnes of cement each year, so even if the whole country moved to the LC3 approach that would mean about 3m tonnes of Metakaolin. This is unlikely to happen obviously, the second link above should explain this if you look at the charts/graphs etc. Perhaps 10% of the 10m for LC3 might be a bit closer to the mark, so that's about 300,000 tonnes per annum. Plus, with your numbers for HOLCIM buying metakaolin at those level and costs they would likely buy DSO and convert themselves.
Also, when it comes to pure feasibility of comparing clinker vs LC3, this could be an increase of anywhere from 15-40%. They will make an effort to reduce their GHG scopes down but they are using all sorts of other approaches as well, and it all comes back to cost.
ZEO Price at posting:
5.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
