Yep, I hear you and I too was grappling with it for some time. Then I saw the wisdom in their position...which is to wait until the four wells and seismic was done before they did a resource assessment. This is too big.
Look at their pre drill announcement back in July 2021...they put a number out there and they (unexpectedly) hit it out of the park.
So the danger is they will be undercooking it if they do put a number on it right now.
Look at the possibilities as they currently sit.
They say reservoir yield is between 80-110 BCF/3 km2 GIP
A/ Current thinking is reservoir is 102 km2 - lets call this the "expected case"
B// Whole structure could be 160 km2 - lets call this a "high but possible case".
So using these rule of thumb calcs...and simple math and extrapolation
A. We can have 2.7 TCF to 3.7 TCF total. NWE share is 540 - 740 BCF (or 0.54 -0.74 TCF)
B. We can have 4.3 TCF to 5.9 TCF total. NWE share is 860 - 1180 BCF (0.86-1.2 TCF) interestingly and illustrative of the difficulty here...
1.2 TCF was the pre drill high case...for 100% share!! lol
These numbers are so big, everyone is frightened of them.
You, me, others and especially CE and his advisers know this. Hes happy to take a $400M "punt" on this...to get the 20% he does not own outright (I wouldn't be surprised if he had a dream about how fabulously big this is "woke up one morning"). I loaded up on this when they were doing the remedial cement job - the biggest risk for me (discovery) had been well and truly taken out by then.
