Okay, I won't 'wade' into the debate about the PE company being kosher etc
The question to me is: what do the the Note Holders think is the probability of getting $50m + administrators costs for the assets if they vote against the extension?
If it's say 80% or more then we shareholders are screwed. Simple as that. Why would you take the massive extra risk for a modest extra return.
If there is doubt then they may consider the benefits of voting for an extension. They'd look at the probability of:
a) Oil prices going up towards $50 in the next 12 months (maybe 50%? everyone has their own take on this)
b) AZZ actually getting a deal over the line for these assets
c) AZZ getting more than about $150m (depends on your assumptions in the calc) for the deal (meaning the shares after 1:4 dilution are worth more than 50c and they are worth converting)
No comment being made on what's been done being above board - personally I was relying solely on EGI's involvement and visibility of the market over there as risk management regarding that.
Just focussing for a sec on the game ahead for Shareholders.
Cheers
pb
AZZ Price at posting:
50.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
