Excellent post @swc - I agree without a doubt that the potential worst case scenario is materially better if this vote gets up. It is hard to find fault in your assessment of a better overall probability weighted / risk-adjusted return (for yes vs. no deal) given the range of outcomes. As unlikely as it is, there is only one option - 'no deal' - that could lead to a $0 outcome (operating expenses continue to wipe out equity over time).
However, one reason why it still has not quite convinced me to return to the 'yes' side of the ledger: It is my belief in the 'power of self-interest'
Somers will not appreciate the prospect of losing $4m (approximately) per year if/when the deal falls through.
It is possible that this may be a 'self-interest' deal disguised as being for the greater good (i.e. minority shareholders). I don't believe the deal's true consequences have been accurately presented to shareholders. Should it get up, minority shareholders will very likely end up as minority shareholders in a 'LIC' (that we did not sign up for). Somers will then have the ability to patiently wait for us to lose interest and sell our shares back to the company and/or directly to Somers (both have the same effect in the end) at 50c on the dollar (or worse). It could end up a takeover by stealth, on horrendous terms for minority shareholders.
Who would be competing with Somers to buy these shares from minority shareholders as we attempt to exit?
I can't see why anyone else would want them.
Also, maybe Somers will instead choose to buy them at 30c on the dollar, or 10c on the dollar - who is to know? Realistically, when hoping to 'cash out' we will all be at their mercy. As @friendlydwarves previously outlined, they established a very poor track with minority shareholders in this regard during the 2020/Vaspip situation - only being reasonable to shareholders when forced to legally.
The major downside risk is being unable to sell out at anything close to reasonable terms following a 'yes deal'.
TGA Price at posting:
$1.34 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
