IXC 2.86% 7.2¢ invex therapeutics ltd

Ann: Notice of Annual General Meeting/Proxy Form, page-113

  1. 335 Posts.
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    Directors voting on special resolutions
    The Directors can vote for other directors to get their free shares. I expect the special resolutions to pass.

    PMD Outcome
    Titans19 is correct - the delay centres on Invex's appropriate apprehension in using the FDA-mandated PMD outcome when their published data suggests a lack of reliability as a visual outcome.

    Why the special resolutions now?
    The question we need to answer is why issue incentive shares now? Complete speculation on my part, but here's what I'm how I'm thinking through it.

    The BoD has recently finalised their regulatory strategy(Early Q4). They may have decided to harmonise both the EMA and the FDA endpoints with one single phase 3 trial.

    The patient numbers may need to be increased to gain the significance required in PMD and satisfy the FDA's requirement for two trials ~250 patients x 2 = 500 patients.

    More patients may require more capital and delay their 2023 timeline. This may result in a upcoming dilutionary event to raise the cash. May be fortuitous, but they've foreshadowed an upcoming presentation at Bell Potter's Healthcare Conference in early Nov in their last announcement. Bell Potter helped raise capital after the Phase 2.

    The delayed timeline may also mean that they're only going to be halfway through Phase 3 trial in 2023 at the time their options are going to be exercised around $0.60, $1.10 and $1.30. In 2019 at the time of issuing these options, they may have expected to have been at pre-acquisition stage by their internal timelines at which time their options would expire.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3741/3741192-8bde88b51d2914dc56e9532d2cff581e.jpg

    The delayed timeline with the Phase 3 and an upcoming dilution may all work to dampen the share price at the time of execution in 2023. In other words, they may not be in the money at the time they execute their Options and may find themselves under-remunerated for the time invested into conducting the Phase 3.

    Hence why they may devised this new route of remuneration via incentive shares, to ensure that regardless of the share-price, they'll be fairly remunerated.

    There are so many assumptions with this. Hopefully the upcoming regulatory update and AGM sheds light on an uncharacteristic move from a high calibre board of directors.
    Last edited by arkangel256: 29/10/21
 
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