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17/07/20
12:15
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Originally posted by Galilee13:
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So this is what I learnt yesterday. I'll start with the negatives, so are very obvious Yacov is a terrible at engaging with shareholders and the market. He could not sell water in a drought! There is such a good story to tell here and at the very minimum he should have given a recap of the hugely successful year the company has had to date and what to expect for the remainder of the year. If he can't articulate this to the market then I as a shareholder would prefer to see someone else speak for the company. Yacov needs to focus on what he does best and employ others to fill the gaps. Nothing happening in China, Taiwan and India in the short to medium term, focus on the US (positive). NMPA data has not been lodged and thus approval could still be 1 to 2+ years away. Focus on the US (positive). Issues in China and ability to start manufacturing. Manufacturing capacity issues within Israel. We now have some form of misalignment with the directors incentives and how this plays out will show the companies true colours. In terms of positives: The university hospital deal is massive. The company is saying total IDTF revenue should be annualising about $18m USD by years end. With a largely fixed cost structure the company will be significantly cash flow positive by years end. These 4 uni hospitals are already using the patch and prizma. Why this wasn't made clearer in the ASX announcement I don't know. Probably in low volumes but still a positive. There are many more hospitals deals in the pipeline. This strategy of targeting hospitals with the IDTF facility first is very smart. It's all recurring revenue that is reimbursed. GMV has the ability to offer both in house and external products. It's not just about the prizma and patch but recurring revenues. This is a very capital light model and thus would not require a capital raise to significantly scale up. I expect to see more deals announced with hospitals. Livecare and All Country Home Care have started disturbing the prizma, albeit IMO very low volumes. Second generation G3 prizma to be ready for regulatory approval lodgement Q1 next year. Nasdaq IPO still targeting the very short term. Personally I would prefer them to wait until the business is annualising say $20m USD in revenue which would be Q1 next year. Reason being is recent m tech and fin tech IPOs on the Nasdaq seem to be listing around the 10x revenue mark. This would give a market cap of $200m USD and whilst still a penny dreadful stock by US standards would be better received by the market than say targeting a $50m or even $100m USD market cap. Overall a terrible question and answer session that really let anyone down. Let's hope Yacov, Brendan and Henry are working comprehensive update to do with the 4c at the end of the month.
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I wouldn't say NMPA is 1-2 years away. I'd say much sooner but to me it sounds like production of products and revision of results is significantly hampered due to COVID issues. It also sounds like them not being able to be in China itself is a significant issue which I can understand. Whilst COVID has been good for us in the US it has been awful for us in China. Personally I prefer the US presence.