Had most of the numbers right ...2020 investor pres numbers1000+...

Had most of the numbers right ...
2020 investor pres numbers
1000+ banks - correct
6 mil merchants - correct
20 mil orders/day - I said 30, I'm sure I'd seen 30 online somewhere but oh well
1T RMB annual transation/year - I said 1.1, I'd also seen 2T mentioned somewhere but was dubious
3B RMB/day - correct (1T/year converted to daily is ~3B)

So if theres ~20M orders/day processing ~3B RMB, avg order size is ~150RMB = ~$AUD30. Not really relevant but still interesting

Other 'back of the envelope' info to compare and muse over ...
Last years 2019 investor pres had the following info
Category 1 (Capped fixed fee): 1.5B RMB daily
Category 2 (2-3 basis point revenue): 200M RMB daily
10 mil orders/day

First point - the orders/day appear to have doubled from 10 to 20M/day.
Second point - 2019 total RMB/day = cat 1 + cat 2 = 1.7B/day. 2020 total RMB/day = 3B/day. Not quite doubled but close.
Third point - Which category has the increase in daily transactions come from? This is where the guess work comes in and is open for interpretation.

Category 1 processing has a capped fee and related to China Merchants bank according to the 2019 pres however the company blurb was stating they were serving 300 banks at this point so potentially it includes some or all of these banks. These guys got a capped deal because the product needing introduction, testing, scaling, etc. Not sure how long this deal was for, top of my head, I think 3 years was mentioned somewhere. If they have increased their processing from 1.5B/day to 2.8B/day, we would not see any increase in revenue due to the capped fee.

Category 2 processing has 2-3 basis points and is for contracts from March 2019. This is all the rural credit banks, the Tier 1 bank contracts, anything from March. On the 19/9/19 the company blurb was stating 700 banks. The 2019 pres figure of 200M/day was dated 15/9/19 so likely this was from ~400 banks at various stages of uptake of product. There's now 1000+ banks being serviced so likely 700+ banks in this category.

So the question becomes how much of the 1.3B/day increase has come from each category?
If the Cat 1 capped fee section has increased, there is no benefit.
If the Cat 2 capped fee section has increased, we start becoming very profitable.

This post is long enough so I won't go on with various examples of cat 1 v cat 2 percentages but if costs stay the same which they should, potential profit, price multiples and MC all become quite interesting. Food for thought since there is not much company news as per usual

GLTAH DYOR