@TymmsyYou have a list of what you like about EUR and hopefully you also have a list of the things you don't like.
I am always very wary of management who use company money as if it is their own and issue overly generous performance shares (with low hurdles) on top of large salaries and in addition charge management fees on top. I'm not saying this is the case with EUR but it's one of the tests I use when assessing a company.
Here's a few other points to ponder and I would like to point out that I am not here to knock the company or the deal, but just stating facts as I understand them, which may help for research purposes when assessing the various rabbit holes. Feel free to correct anything you don't agree with.
- What are the respective parties bringing to the table this merger deal?
- Sizzle are putting up about AUD$200m net cash after deducting about US$25m in setup fees.
- EUR are putting up the project, worth about AUD$90m (at current market cap less cash holding)
- Total combined package AUD$290m in the new entity as a base case ignoring revaluation
- At base case, 20% sizzles holders value becomes AUD $58m (from premerger, pre fee value of AUD$237m)
- EUR 80% share of the new entity becomes AUD$232m versus AUD$90m premerger.
- Revaluation assumes AUD$1.130 billion mark-up on base case, from AUD$290 million to AUD1.42 billion simply by adding the sizzle cash and listing in the US. You need to assess whether or not this is realistic, or maybe a bit of smoke and mirrors.
- The following report (see bottom of page) show that SPAC's average redemptions on mergers are now running at 75%, which doesn't leave much cash behind for the new business if this were to be the case.
- The report also points out that due to some of the problems and the large number of SPAC's new businesses are becoming harder to find and sponsors are becoming less discerning. As a result, many of the new acquisitions are trading substantially below their cost of acquisition.
- In my opinion and based on the above, if the deal is not considered fair, then regardless of the shareholder vote, more holders will redeem rather than participate.
Don't get me wrong, I still believe EUR represents good value at the current price and the company has sufficient cash to stay in the game. I'm not suggesting ppl bail or stay, they need to do their own research and make their own decisions as a new offer could land on the table at any time. IMO there is probably a lot more upside than downside at the current level. The market is crying out for Lithium and there is a shortage of quality production in the EU and so there is a good chance that the project will eventually come into production, but not in the proposed format. As I say, all in my opinion only.
The following report is worth a read ...
Latest SPAC Trends Point To Risk Of Negative Outcomes (brattle.com)
