Hi all,Valid analysis requires differentiation, for without it...

Hi all,

Valid analysis requires differentiation, for without it there is no decay or growth or change of any kind. Some people do not appear capable of differentiating and so they tend to sound like a broken record. I got bored with that and wanted to liven up the discussion a little.

Macro trends and real changes must be incorporated into ones investment paradigm, but that takes creative ability too. This is not a criticism of perma-bears or perma-bulls as such, however cycle analysis renders their "thesis" (more like stuck bias IMO) dangerous. The trend is your friend until the bend at the end. Things do change; like death and taxes, absolutely inevitable. It is easy to see why investors are 'down' on the share price. BB has only been at the helm of "sad ship AJX" for 12 months and so I am prepared to listen and watch for change. He has done well so far according to the narrative, I have never seen marketing expertise in this company before BB, so that is at least different. It appears substantial and he has specific track record of success.

What about the technical aspect of the chart then? Is the long consolidation down at these price levels representing the old management or the new? It would seem that a lot of stale investors have given up and that the volumes now indicate selling exhaustion. The lack of sales growth to date is reflected in actual slowing of the bedding market and yet the numbers have not worsened under BB. The number of products, their market readiness (according to AJX reports and scientific testing) and the numbers of clients have apparently grown substantially. Their focus now seems viable from a theoretical perspective at least.

IF, and I clearly state "IF", the commercialization ability of Billy is superior to that of Bob, and Nicks (BS); then the move to new markets off-shore, and clients backed by more focused science and sales tactics will take root (is taking root?). This is not proven in the numbers yet, however I do differentiate between the old approach and the new as a matter of sanity, as failure to differentiate is not a viable investment paradigm.

IF any of this thesis is real, then it will be very hard to buy shares down at this price level for much longer. It is hard to buy at volume already. Is that risk within your individual capacity to absorb IF nothing eventuates from all this change? Stuck owners that bought at much higher levels do not own many shares in general; not the smaller retail holders. They will not be a massive source of supply IF this does survive as I believe it will. IF they can materially grow based on new markets and products on top of an inevitable return of an up cycle in bedding then the numbers will justify a "different" valuation. I am happy to take that risk on a potential reward basis with an appropriate weighting in my portfolio.

Keep an open mind (both directions; up and down) when investing folks. I hope this helps in some way, and I hope things improve so that long suffering investors get to have waited out the pain and can look at recovery and even profits down the time track.

GLTAH and DYO(updated)R CW