EL, your assumption that the SP will drop back after the offer closes is not rational. Those who don't accept are not prepared to sell at 17, nor were they selling at 8, in fact most were buying. There is clear evidence that the only major seller in the lead up to the T/O was BR. (go read their last SSH, 10/02/18 I think, then look at what they have declared as the holding going into the IAF)
Anyway, if there are almost no sellers, but plenty of buyers (OZL will be on the bid for sure, after a period of time, for their 3% every 6 months), the price will be supported, no problem. (remember, that 3% needs to come from a much smaller pool of free float shareholders, so it will 'feel' like trying to get 6%. There will also be other new supporters, wanting to get in on the AVB story, especially with a rejuvenated BOD and senior management, in fact I can foresee a bit of a squeeze happening, as the pool of liquidity of shares available for purchase will be significantly smaller than now, and we won't have BR's so-called 'required reductions due to risk limits' (Give us a break........)
A fear of the price falling is not a factor in the thoughts of the non-accepters, so it is pointless repeating this fallacy as a mantra.
The fear of delisting is also a fallacy, due to the rules around that issue being clearly unable to be met for at least 12 months, and by then, the imminent published news flow, will be out for all to see.
I am open to the possibility that OZL may well creep over the 50.1% line by closing date. Not a problem; saves us having to roll our current board ourselves, but I'm confident that ongoing price activity after the closing of the Offer won't be as you are portraying it.
OZL Price at posting:
$10.40 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
