I'm waiting for the conference call as well.AFR reporting that...

I'm waiting for the conference call as well.
AFR reporting that GQG is looking to list on the ASX at a 5B valuation...

I've been musing on how to value this business. There have been very big profitable sales (Aperio, Rare) and revaluations, which end up as abnormals, although the frequency of the events suggest this is not really the case.

I've come to the conclusion that the best way to estimate growth is by indexing change in NTA + dividends and doing a long term CAGR calculation to estimate the underlying growth of the business.

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Net assets	54453600	64049190	50,095,988	56,127,262	59,185,290	57,916,381	61,077,425	61,077,425	223,919,753	187,429,597	275,184,176	323,300,175	383,527,000	402,559,000	402,378,000
DPS	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.26	0.34	0.34	0.37	0.46	0.52	0.25	0.18	0.22	0.25	0.35	0.36
SOI	22582591	23,127,023	23073531	23,070,755	23,070,755	23,070,755	23,070,756	23,070,757	27,604,144	28,125,955	47,642,330	47,642,367	47,642,367	49,708,483	50,828,844
NTA/share	2.41130878	2.769452428	2.1711453	2.432831609	2.56538158	2.5103808	2.6473959	2.6473958	8.111816581	6.663937171	5.77604361	6.785980533	8.050124798	8.098396404	7.91633192
NTA + dividends		3.37	2.37	2.69	2.91	2.85	3.02	3.11	8.63	6.91	5.96	7.01	8.30	8.45	8.28
Total return		39.7%	-14.4%	24.0%	19.4%	11.1%	20.2%	17.4%	226.0%	-14.8%	-10.6%	21.3%	22.3%	4.9%	2.2%
Year	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Index	1	1.397354189	1.1963844	1.483853643	1.7720754	1.9689429	2.3666051	2.777816	9.057050916	7.719587883	6.89955516	8.368729945	10.23603039	10.74244741	10.9784772
CAGR		39.7%	9.4%	14.1%	15.4%	14.5%	15.4%	15.7%	31.7%	25.5%	21.3%	21.3%	21.4%	20.0%	18.7%

The problem is the asset base has enlarged so much that that the return on assets and ROE drops substantially...

NPAT	29,155,596	29601944	11515976	10,186,844	9,727,429	8,075,538	10,628,020	14035518	18650208	11,622,541	16,618,839	18849000	22043000	25,034,000	26,265,000
ROE	53.54%	46.22%	22.99%	18.15%	16.44%	13.94%	17.40%	22.98%	8.33%	6.20%	6.04%	5.83%	5.75%	6.22%	6.53%
3yr average NPAT			23,424,505	17,101,588	10,476,750	9,329,937	9,476,996	10,913,025	14,437,915	14,769,422	15,630,529	15,696,793	19,170,280	21,975,333	24,447,333
3yr average ROE			41.68%	30.13%	19.00%	16.16%	15.96%	18.18%	12.52%	9.38%	6.83%	5.99%	5.86%	5.94%	6.17%

Unless some of that equity can be released back to shareholders or revenue/profit increases, it becomes very difficult for the market to see how the underlying business is performing. That being said, I think there is a fantastic base from which to grow and hard to see much downside at these prices.