Yeah - I think the shorters are risk adverse on this one,...

Yeah - I think the shorters are risk adverse on this one, because of the unquantifiable risk that the forced sellers have a few options and zero possibility of leakage of info because of the highly secretive motivations and options that the sellers have. They could do a block trade to another mysterious set of shell companies of uncertain identity and domicile, which will then reset the investigative/regulatory clock back to zero and leave ASIC and other government agencies with a new situation to respond to, so they will buy themselves more time doing that. Or another (but unlikely) risk to the shorts is that the forced sellers could also dispose to entirely legitimate and transparent owners, and the share price could moon in response to that.