Thanks for a very detailed account. Exciting times ahead, for a...

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NormanW

5,014 Posts.

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19/04/15

19:45

Post #: 15115111
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Originally posted by dt7 ↑

Well, takeover premiums for junior and mid miners are usually 30-50%, so say we are at $1 after DFS, $1.30-1.50. Fundamental analysis of the PFS NPV puts the fully derisked (i.e. working mine) north of $3.

If TNG do what some of us suspect, push the mine life well beyond 20 years, things get very interesting.
The drop in exchange rate and the addition of FeV to the mix could push the post DFS / post TRR SP towards $2 at which time a bidder would have to look at $3 - don't forget there are also some big holdings held long term and it would take a decent offer to shake enough of them lose to get the 90% needed for compulsory acquisition of minorities.

The separation certainly clears the path for a takeover - my read of the timetable and the lack of cornerstone indicates that TNG are VERY sure of their funding capability already......perhaps no-one indicated a suitable cornerstone offer for TRR and TNG will just deal with the financing after the DFS is released in the knowledge result is going to be different to the PFS anyway.

First big movement I think will be binding offtakes, then EIS, DFS, TRR share issue date and funding. Funding might even come in before the demerger is effective (but after the vote is taken).

Watching for all the 3B notices exercising options the next few weeks, and the next set of questions from Stacey. Yes Indeed.

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Thanks for a very detailed account.
Exciting times ahead, for a long term prospectus IMO, to sell now and wait for a bottom to form, would be like "missing the call from the helmsman; jump on board" only to miss the departure, which mind you could be a quick and brisk one. The jump could catch many by surprise. Interesting times ahead!

TNG Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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