The expert reports are tick-box exercise to supplement the governance decision. The BDO report seems robust but has one main flaw in my view and hence is undervaluing the value of the put option:
1) For the valuation before the Put Option it is using the following assumptions:
a) A DCF based approach using a real WACC of 13-16%
b) A 15% haircut to the DCF valuation based on a discount for lack of marketability/control
c) A 20% haircut to the DCF valuation for perceived dilution and funding risk
2) For the valuation after the Put Option it uses the following assumptions:
a) A DCF based approach using a real WACC of 13-16%
b) A 17.5% haircut to the DCF valuation based on a discount for lack of marketability/control
c) Nil discount for dilution / funding risk
The overall WACC of 13-16% in the Put Option scenario seems too conservative. The cost of debt of that scenario is secured at SOFR + 5% so 9.5% all-in (nominal to ~7.5% real). Assuming 50% is funded with debt and 50% with equity would imply the equity return is 18%-25% in real terms which is probably on the high side.
The other point I would say, the WACC for Xanadu shareholders might be 13-16% real. One thing is certain, the WACC for Zijin is nowhere near that level. It's probably 8-10% real. One broker for example values Zijin at 8.7% WACC (nominal). So the value for Xanadu's share in Kharmagtai in Zijin's eyes is much higher as they will discount the cash-flows at a lower rate. Every 1% movement in the WACC in the post put option exercise is another $10m of value. So the range of value at an 8-10% real as opposed to 13-16% real would be: $133m USD at 10% and $151m USD at 8%. This is more where I expect things to end up, 10c-12c per share.
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8.0¢ |
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0.001(1.27%) |
Mkt cap ! $183.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
8.0¢ | 8.0¢ | 8.0¢ | $813 | 10.16K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 45325984 | 7.9¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.0¢ | 7512998 | 27 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 45325984 | 0.079 |
2 | 2000000 | 0.076 |
1 | 7350 | 0.069 |
1 | 15000 | 0.062 |
2 | 26650 | 0.060 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.080 | 7462998 | 26 |
0.081 | 99500 | 2 |
0.082 | 8334 | 1 |
0.085 | 29181 | 2 |
0.086 | 140000 | 1 |
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