Excellent post (as always, mate).
Just a brief comment re: "The risk is that JP & co feel forced to go ahead on a funding deal with a potentially punitive interest rate/term".
Directors have a fiduciary duty to make decisions in the best interests of shareholders. This includes not concluding any deals deemed commercially unsatisfactory or which put the long-term interests of the company at stake.
While capital markets are still tight and while I agree with your interest rate range of 12.5%-15% - there would be limit above which JP and Co would need to walk away in the interests of shareholders.
The notion that a punitive deal is better than no deal is simplistic (not saying you are personally implying this) and not how it works - given a directors fiduciary duty. I've seen companies suspend trading rather than accept commercially unsatisfactory debt deals.
I am confident that JP won't be forced into any company threatening deals - while also agreeing that any debt secured won't come cheaply.
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