GLN 4.35% 11.0¢ galan lithium limited

I think it would need to be fully funded for phase 2 and on its...

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    I think it would need to be fully funded for phase 2 and on its way toward ramp up to get to that figure. Even if you assume, per the DFS, that a) LCE prices magically recover by >100% to US$28k/t and b) Daniel's estimate of LiCL payabilities are correct (73% for phase 1), then a fully-funded phase 1 is doing US$83M / A$125M EBITDA p/a. Would an operation of that size in a jurisdiction like Argentina deserve to trade on almost 8x in a commodity that has shown itself to be as opaque and volatile as lithium has?

    However, if the DFS phase 2 assumptions were met (LCE US$29k/t, 79% payability for LiCL) admittedly a big 'if', then at full operation they're doing EBITDA of US$374M / A$566M which is a very meaningful operation once it's in full swing. An $1B market cap at those levels is only 1.7x. However you have to question the reality of these long-term price assumptions that have been baked in for decade after decade in these studies that were predominantly being worked on during a Li bull market. It's a dangerous game predicting commodity prices but there's now so many significant companies with clear ramp-up plans (PLS; IGO; MIN; LTHM; LAC; ALB; SQM; Ganfeng with Goulamina; other Chinese lepidolite; African spod; etc) then if prices were to get back to the high US$25-28k range that brings a huge amount of supply back into play and has the resultant impact on price again.
 
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