Hi mondy,
Wrt supply and demand, here are a couple of charts that are interesting, imo.
The first is a chart from BMI, from earlier this year, that shows their estimate of supply vs demand. Interestingly, imo, we can see that if their numbers turn out to be somewhat “correct”, then there is significant sensitivity to demand rising off the “base case” scenario.
Combine that with delays/issues/etc with new supply, and I don’t think it’s a “given”, as some out there appear to be claiming, that there’ll be “oversupply” for “several more years”, or “until 2028”, etc.
It will be very interesting to see how the supply/demand and pricing landscape evolves in the next 6-12 months, imo.
Here is an interesting relevant chart that I saw the other day (posted by @8horse ).
Afaict, we are looking at demand increasing somewhere in the 200kt-300kt LCE range, per year, over the next say decade or so.
BMI’s “base case” actually suggests an additional 300kt LCE required per year.
Each year.
AFAIK that’s equivalent to about 2.4Mt of new spod concentrate coming online each year.
I don’t think enough people recognise or understand how difficult it is to bring this much supply online - especially via greenfield projects - in the face of issues and delays relating to permitting, funding, etc.
Note what happens if the actual demand rises above the “base case”, anywhere near/towards the “high case” in BMI’s chart…!
ps. I realise that is merely BMI’s estimate, but provides good food for thought imo!
(20min delay)