to deal with the time factor of past as the value of money is eroded, here's my perspective take from it what you will
the time frame between discovery to mine is between 12.5 years and up to 20 years - its dependant on ore, country and size of discovery.
these time frames are getting longer in almost all countries - look within australia - water issues , environmental issues, climate issues and social issues all contributing to longer times to get a mine going here than 20 years ago.
I'm sure most know the graph of a company share price and how this changes from spec money to investing money - once a company gets close to a mine online - we are in the throws of investing money which is why i believe we haven't got s/p traction with the excellent results from our current drilling program of the new prospects in fluoride and phosphate. The spec money isn't invested anymore and the investing money eye is on the progress forward of getting a mine out off the ground. as a personal point i wasn't impressed to start with when they where going to drill more due to wanting to conserve cash and spend on instigating the mine program , i have changed my tune since as the results speak for themselves and doing this now is better to incorporate the fluoride into the flow chart earlier than as an afterthought - i hope and believe that the phosphate can move along at a faster pace while the main mine is being developed. which will bring on an income stream earlier than 3 years in my view.. possible late next year even. this won't be dividends but then we can start to do the maths on its current earnings. which will draw in the investors we are trying to obtain. and i think this will be will be the catalyst for a guiniine rerate , the chart from spec to investing - 9 times out of 10 the investing money long term outperforms the spec money - caveat on that is if you haven't either cashed out and free carried or as in my instance averaged down in the spec money stage to the current stage of investing money. my time frame might be different to others here, its more based on future ore price / demand which i think is going to head up in next few years, so i am pretty happy to wait it out with knowing this isn't a sure thing but a risk i'm willing to take for a very good reward several years from now as i hit retirement.
Tanzania did put a hold on special mining licences in 2019, to work through issues stemmed from that of a gold company which was underreporting ounces extracted , During this time and covid, a new president came to power as the previous one died. in any case there has been several years lost of progress no fault of peak or realy for that matter Tanzania getting their house in order.
i personally think "the never invest in a Tanzania based project company again" is a little harsh, as australia has its own sovereign risk - W.A. ban on new uranium mines is a case in point which meant several discovered deposits became worthless. Lesser the extent of the issues of indigenous land rights - usually resolved in cheque book payouts, but none the less adding to times from discovery to mine.
Uranium and rare earth are similar in market structure - its niche market - unlike copper/iron ore/ gold - there are only a few large players in uranium - japan, china , russia , america and france and within those countries one or two companies that specifically downstream process the ore. with rare earth its only two with a third MP coming on line (unsure how that's going) australia lynas and chinese companies , the scope is small and so companies will pick the best bride to wed too, this case it's shenghe to peak. I'm glad we got picked as i think lynas would prefer australian deposits and same goes for America in or close to america , Just remember shenghe came to us. They want our product and my view is looking to work with managment for best outcome of the mine operation.
Regarding my last post on the conditional funding option that has been waived for the offtake agreement to proceed for a vote by peak shareholders - i believe this is a good thing and if anything actually strengthens peaks ability to look for finance outside of the reliance of shenghe as mentioned in that post regarding financial houses risk to loan.
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