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0.2¢ linius technologies limited

Ann: Notice of General Meeting/Proxy Form, page-38

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Bruno81

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07/06/19

13:07

Post #: 38959963
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Originally posted by andrewjh ↑

I hold and substantially for this reason. However I'm always on the lookout for the counter-thesis. I believe responsible investing is about looking for ways you might be reading the situation wrongly.

What do you think about this as a counter-thesis about the idea that we should have confidence because directors put in $300k each:

Sometimes in a game of poker, the first few rounds of betting can be quite expensive. As it approaches the final card to be turned over and the final round of betting, you become less confident that you will win. You've already bet $10,000 and calculate that the other players have probably got better odds than you do of winning. When the final round of betting comes around, it's a $100 bet to play.

You decide that given your existing stake ($10,000), another $100 is worth throwing in even though the odds are small. Losing $100 will be painful but its worth it to keep alive the chance, though small, of winning the enormous pot.

To apply to LNU... in assessing the significance of the $300k from 3 management players, we would also want to know (1) how much they already have invested, and (2) their net worth.

Let's say the answer to (1) is $2 million each, and lets say the answer to (2) is $10 mil. In this case, $300k represents a fairly small proportion of their net worth (3%). But their existing investment is large proportional to net worth (20%).

Now - If the directors feel that (a) the company is in dire straights and may not ever turn a profit, (b) but there is a slight outside chance that it might if the cards fall the right way... but (c) the only way to know is to fund operating costs for another year or so... They may be prepared to chip in a relatively small extra bet just to keep their game alive.

So on this counter-thesis, the existence of the $300k investments may merely mean the directors haven't lost all hope. They can't pull their money out without crashing the share price because it would reflect a total loss of confidence, so the only chance they have of recovering their initial investment is to play one more round, one last throw of the dice.

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Great analysis, I think along the same lines,what seems like a lot of money to some may not be much for others. Also directors may have been selling shares the last few months at a huge loss to offset their tax knowing they would pick up these new ones at .035. Pure speculation of course and I hope the best for the company but I still won't let myself get too excited till there's some big contracts.

LNU Price at posting: 4.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 0.2¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $11.73M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.2¢	0.2¢	0.2¢	$500	250K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
38	239481942	0.1¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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Ann: Notice of General Meeting/Proxy Form, page-38

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Ann: Notice of General Meeting/Proxy Form, page-38

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