Dear PB,
Most of us are not here for a dollar - that is the main difference - the 30% new holders are here for a cycle play of 10-20x returns.
The spot price rise we are talking is not $5 or $8 like in 2018 but a sustained $35 plus.... the correlation for a project moving into production on an up commodity cycle can be researched with ample examples (10-20x returns are not uncommon - watch WKT as a current case study in play if you are struggling with the concept).
Actually us holders who have arrived for the cycle, are happy to buy $1 of value for less than 10c, or at 0.6c - a 95% discount to potential 5 year future fair value. Let the sellers exit; let the DFS be produced; let there be further dilution to ensure Tiris is financed; then what happens when the cashflow at 3 mil pounds of production in 2023 (on $65 spot) hits US$100m @ a 3x multiple = US$300m cap which equates to over 15c AUD per share assuming doubling of current shares on issue.
Future new dilution; Con Note; Plus Driller exit = US$30m of overhang (2019-2021) Vs US$100m in cashflow in potentially one year lets observe what wins the day over the next 5 years. Total Tiris project net cashflow is likely to be over US$500m after tax over the mine lifetime.
In summary: As the U cycle unfolds AEE's sp potential is +0.5-0.8c on average for a US$5m move over the next +$40 spot move; this can be ensured by stock buy backs or increasing dividend payments as the free cashflow will be exceptional as the spot moves through US$65.
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Last
15.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(3.13%) |
Mkt cap ! $118.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
15.0¢ | 15.5¢ | 14.5¢ | $215.6K | 1.453M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 83325 | 15.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
16.0¢ | 228137 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 83325 | 0.150 |
3 | 19000 | 0.140 |
6 | 191478 | 0.135 |
2 | 20384 | 0.130 |
4 | 490000 | 0.125 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.160 | 228137 | 2 |
0.165 | 237101 | 3 |
0.170 | 238528 | 6 |
0.175 | 394343 | 8 |
0.180 | 207428 | 4 |
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