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23/05/19
19:36
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Originally posted by CycleBottom
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Hi Growler....Forthright statements for a cycle still to unfold.
Remember: PDN fell 77% from 2000 through 2003 then +869x
Tiris DFS late - many U companies have constant delays due to a spot price not allowing positive project implementation
Haggan IPO delayed - Yes most are delayed
Best Water source - Optimization can be an ongoing process.
The key issue is are these factors all priced into the lowest market cap sector opportunity available? The answer is Yes - Its Aura Energy, as it was with PDN in 2003 post dropping 77% from 2000.
The Cycle: Yes I'm here for the cycle - AEE is shaping up to be one of the best plays of the coming cycle - Yes I'm forward looking when investing in any asset class - No I'm not excusing management, but at the same time thats not the only factor one looks at when investing in commodity stocks - New Blood on the board can mitigate all your statements overnight particularly if backed by deep pockets - The key is the project economics! Disregard the new shareholder mix as much as you like, change is afoot and you continue to be blind to it.
Supply destruction provides us "CERTAINTY" of the coming bull market in Uranium - the sub $20 OPEX players are unable to supply more than 50% of the market over the medium term, the extra supply must come from the US$20-40 OPEX players.
Case Study on a similar commodity play (non-U) : WKT - average buy price 8.5c; expected average sell price over 48 months 75c - this case study had the same management and delay issues as you have pointed out with Aura - yet new shareholders and positive change - look whats possible.
On my average price on Aura, I can't state it yet as factual because I'm still buying; the lower it goes the more I will own; when I have finished buying I'm happy to disclose the fact - based on the DFS being best in its class and new shareholders focusing on positive outcomes - I believe I would be a top 5 holder at 0.4c. Yes its still a cycle theme as opposed to a stock specific only call.
Like me you can judge my call when the Uranium spot moves through US$65 onto US$100 as the Utilities repeat last cycles behaviour of all coming to the market together - until then there isn't anything to judge.
PLEASE NOONE BUY FROM THE STATEMENTS ABOVE JUST SELL INSTEAD - AS IM NOT UPRAMPING OR DOWNRAMPING OR ANY RAMPING OR INDICATING THAT MANAGEMENT ARE MORE THAN HUMAN IN THAT THEY WISH TO BE PAID AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE - IM HERE FOR THE URANIUM CYCLE BECAUSE THIS IS A CYCLICAL OPPORTUNITY (AT BOTTOM WITH SEVERAL CATALYSTS ON THE HORIZON) WHICH WILL DELIVER MATERIAL RETURNS OVERTIME (3, 6, 12 MONTHS - THE UP CYCLE WILL COMMENCE).
So Growl away - if you don't have a ticket you will never win - if you don't have a view you will never achieve anything - if you focus only on the negative you will never participate in the overwhelming positive Uranium cycle "when" it arrives.
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Wow has the quality of this chatroom lifted up immeasurably since you joined! Welcome onboard @CycleBottom . It had gotten so boring & repetitive there for a few months it hadn't been worth visiting.
I like you're thinking, too. If something were to pop 800 bags will anyone really beat themselves up for buying at 10cents, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Got my tickets at 2.3 (lose no sleep over this), so may have to settle for around 300 bags if things work out the way a few of us here envision they can.
Gltah