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It is worth remembering what the Balance Sheet will look like...

  1. HK1
    590 Posts.
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    It is worth remembering what the Balance Sheet will look like after the deal is done. $35m is being raised in the CR, but $40m cash has to be immediately paid to NS. With $10m in cash payments delayed by 12 & 24 months. So $5m of the payment to NS comes straight from the loan. Another $10m of the loan has been earmarked for payments for this process, plus company operational expenses.

    Loans outstanding after the deal is done:
    $15m (if the maximum CR is achieved) from ANZ. Another $5m can still be drawn down.
    $10m ($5m to be paid in 12 months, $5m to be paid in 24 months for the purchase of NS)

    I suspect that the $20m ANZ loan will be guaranteed against the $12m warehouse and stock of NS as OBJ has no real tangible assets.

    So, OBJ will go from no debt, to one with $25m of debt and a new business that still leaves many questioning what synergies it has with "OBJ Technology". That is not an insignificant amount of debt for a company that is forecasted to be barely at cashflow breakeven. The new OBJ products need to be contributing to profit sooner, rather than later.

    The difference between this deal and the first one is really not that much different for current OBJ holders. The difference is really only a couple of percent of dilution. But even if the share price goes up significantly (to $1.20 or the old 6c in 3 years, as someone mentioned), the current shareholders would still be diluted to around 35%. But, on the upside, the share price would have gone up to 4x and most should be at least close to breakeven, or even in the green for many current OBJ holders.

    The directors are buying $3.5m at 1.5c in the CR. The initial $50m CR maybe was too ambitious and they couldn't get it across the line. Plus maybe the new investors have been asking about how much the Directors believe their own hype, so maybe they were their hand was forced to taking up 10% of the CR. That is just all speculation. Regardless, the share price just has to go up slowly for them to make good money, whereas many current OBJ holders need the share price to go up in multiples to get back their investment. For the share price to go up 3x or 4x, significant revenue and profit will have to be achieved, remembering that the Market Value of OBJ will be $105m, theoretically, upon relisting.

    As an ex-OBJ holder, I feel that this deal is far from a good deal for current OBJ holders. I still fail to see any real value in buying NS. Current OBJ holders are not given much choice - significant dilution in the company that you wanted (OBJ tech) and becoming owners of a supplements supplier. I don't think the Directors have outlined why NS is the best fit for OBJ and why a smaller CR wasn't done (say $3.5m from Directors and $3.5m from current holders) to get the business through the next year until Reduit and Kneeguard start kicking goals. I won't be looking to buy OBJ as the $25m debt and the still unproven Reduit and KneeGuard leave too many question marks for me, as an investor, but I continue to follow it and see what happens.
 
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