Here's that summary I said I'd post -Crux Interview Lindsay 16/5/24 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlMIw4dWfhc
- Biggest food aggregator (Carrinho) will probably buy 80% of our product
- Can sell at fertiliser prices rather than phosphate rock prices
- Stage 1 just under 200kt pa will sell into the domestic market, to mainly small holders by Carrinho, that will absorb all our product,
- About 1 tonne per hectare which lasts for about 4 years & triples yields
- Digging & transporting, the fixed costs and processing costs and the transportation are about a third each
- If we double capacity the fixed costs come down quite a bit saving $20-30/t so looking at $117/t for a product worth $300, this is delivered cost to customers port
- We will also focus on the larger farms, probably 10 or so, below 3-4-5k hectares we’re not really interested
- The biggest farm is 40k hectares sugar plantation, product works really well there, we’ll sell direct to them (Biocom)
- Much better prices in Angola where it replaces fertiliser, if we export it it competes with all the other rocks & doesn’t have that advantage
- Very hard for big fertiliser companies to compete, because the Angolan market is our size & is smaller than the ship load size they’d need to compete.
we can go up the coast with a 5kt vessel
- We price our product on landed cost at their port compared to other products, not offering a huge discount, but the product will be there in their shed at the start of every season
- Re Funding, IDC $14m, we raised some money 2 weeks ago, we have some strategic Investors willing to give us the rest of the equity (with a smirk)
then goes on to talk about the local banks, with 7% money available, we will take advantage of that
- Re IDC interest rates, its pretty good its also strategic, they were the financier for the oil refinerey, so know Angola.
Also on of their entities interested in buying - doubling our capacity for consumption in S Africa, if that happens out costs come down, their debt is derisked
- Our payback about 2 years (re debt)
- Financing based on 1st stage, it costs $40m of which we’ve spent $16m, to double capacity we only have to spend $4m
Thats because we were working on a recirculating flow sheet, it only goes thru once, what could only do 150 can now do 500
- We now have 5 years of field trials, more than anyone else, so we know how, where & why our product works, enabling us to change our flow sheet
- Crux - “so IDC is one route, equity is just from markets” Lindsay - plus one or 2 strategic discussions
Crux - “were they from outside Angola or Africa?” Lindsay - “bit of both, within Africa and outside Africa, there’s a fair bit of appetite inside Africa for it..”
- Lorenzo mandate big emphasis on agriculture, 2 million hectares of Brazil style will have the same effect on their economy as oil & gas
- Will convert Carrinho into a contract in the next few months, under decree local market has to buy Carrinhos product, they have to buy our product.
- Re decree has to be at a competitive price, can’t be twice the price, contract likely to be bigger than MOU
- Our present stage 1 is probably the same value as the DFS which included stage 2, spent $16m, transport reduced with new site, capex reduced by $10m
So our NPV should be similar to the 2022 DFS and we’ve got an expansion just on the horizon
- IFC is funding the training programs behind Carrinho
- Our figures are actually very conservative
- Re share price - we also have one of our shareholders in a little bit of trouble, causing a little bit of a hang over, once thats gone I think (talked over) 20 min mark
getting a lot of enquiries from Africa, bringing IDC in has changed peoples perspective
- Blames engineering contract for 6-8 month delay, covid related.
- Although Angola slow, it offers more certainty, title risk is very solid, they are very supportive of the incumbant, we once lost a license, it took a long time
they should have taken it off us much earlier
- GA Looking to structure up the ammonia project so it’s low capex high return like the phosphate
- People out there looking to do Build Own Operate on the ammonia end, then we can take the fertiliser, get the capex way down, get the returns up
- Planning to start construction in July
- Crusher is a simple dual speed cage mill, takes it from 4mm to 1mm
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