to use this analogy of this stock to that stock, why based on AKE and PLS performance this year why would you buy lithium stocks? but yet wildcat went up this year like AZS. this comparing of apples and oranges is retail basic analysis at best. As you mentioned a TO offer on ESS came at a 50% premium to the price of the stock. We have seen this with LTR and AZS more recently as well.
Wildcat management are not going to stop the drilling campaign just because their major holder is MinRes, Drill results that define the size of the deposit is what the astute are looking and modelling, just like those were doing with AZS. pop quiz anyone got minemap or leapfrog software at your fingertips? Well others do and all these drill results get plugged in and then experts piece assumptions around that to keep tabs on the potential size of the deposit. all this is done before the if you like public disclosure of a MRE is made by the company.
Wildcat has shown it has 50 results pending with the lab and likely another 50 more to come from current drilling when that backlog is released. Management have said they havent even defined the limits yet of the deposit
IMO there are only 2 major discoveries of lithium in the Pilbara AZS and WC8. all the talk of the other names that is popping up is just that "talk" . yeah maybe XYZ will be the next but right now its not. Of course people will invest in these names and hope they pop in value based on a positive drill results.
My play has always been "Valuation is Key" , what is a sizeable lithium deposit worth in the ground ? and how does that compare to the current price. any gaps is where profit is realised. LTR back in like 2020 or so prior to capital raisings for CAPEX and construction phase etc etc had a MRE of 150Mt at ~1.2%, its valuation back at that time $2.2B.
AZS currently no MRE but some handy drill results to date (undoubtedly many have plugged this into leapfrog, minemap including SQM) value 100% Andover deposit at $2.7B and yes they have multiple blocking stake parties on their register
if you believe wildcat deposit is XX MT and that works out in your metrics to a $800M value then right now you probably think that's it for me. Then there are others who will think YY MT is worth $ZZZ. That is why performance of investors is so varied because people will have different view/opinion/analysis on the same stock. The true gauge of performance , profitably..... beauty of markets.
WC8 Price at posting:
70.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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