Ann: Notice of initial substantial holder, page-15

Hey Joel (and yes... I am preaching to the converted here), yep, WGX is getting cheaper by the day, but, I keep coming back to the recent mention that they are looking at fully replacing their Tuckabianna plant. In fact, ever time I re-read the Mar Q and the Mar Q Investor update, I keep trying to tie together all the clues. Perhaps a major holder is not happy with the thought that WGX second largest plant is almost uneconomic even with high grading ore...

WGX say they raised the $100m to fund inorganic and organic growth. Fine, expcept, when you look at the breakdown of this $100m
70% of it going towards the Murchison area. With basically all of it focused on opening up new U/G operations as well as expanding current U/G operations. All good, except... where is the ore going to go?



The company says its basically all going north, as Tuckabianna is going to proces open pit stockpiles for 12-18 months then..... big blank spot.

But they also say this.... except, above, it shows, no capital is planned for any such undertaking.


Oh, but wait, in the March Capital raising preso, they state....



I am not sure they are going to have enough ore (yes, they have U/G, but no base load!!) to feed what the company is basically saying, is a plant (Tuckabianna) that is at the end of its viable life....


Or... is this a hint... about scale?



All I can say with confidence, is that in the past 6-12 months, WGX has gone from professing to try and aim for 300k p.a.
To 350kpa. To now 400k pa. Whilst also admiting they are looking at either upgrading Tuckabianna to 1.4mtpa (which... its close to running at now), or scrapping it completly and building a new 2mtpa. Upgrading Fortuna by 100kt... a tiny increase. And bluebird, by some unknown amount.
They now also plan to transition 2 of its plants to a new energy usage model, but NOT Tuckabianna....

However, I can easily contradict my thoughts, with WGX admiting they are mill constrained.... which is a good thing, except, their 2 main plants are costly buggers to run! This will start to change once they transition to gas, but, that is not happening in the near term.



BUT above all, WGX is being somewhat honest about Tuckabianna, its a very high cost plant, and its too small.


If this post is a hodgebodge of info, then... that makes sense, as WGX flips more often than an Australia politician!

The SP fall continues to be brutal. Perhaps a large holder has finally decided to exit, or are we still seeing sellers from the capital raising escaping?
I am no T/A specialist, but... the fall today was not pretty. Would love to hear @Pointyfigures thoughts on it, but, no pressure!