MMM 0.00% 1.9¢ marley spoon se

Ann: Notice of Initial Substantial Shareholder from WOW, page-21

  1. 103 Posts.
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    Yep, based on HelloFresh EBIT margin of ~10% currently.
    Let say MMM can get there too long-term, to 10-12%.
    Let say $400m revenue grows to $800m over next 5 years (big call, covid has been a massive windfall).
    Fwd EBIT would be ~$80-$100m.
    Current $450m market cap + $100m debt ~ call it $550m EV
    So you're paying 5-6x future EV/EBIT on MMM.
    I mean that's pretty reasonable actually...
    But there is a lot of executional risk - HelloFresh is operating a very different scale to MMM.
    x10 revenue compared to MMM.
    So even if you believe the revenue growth, it's very hard to see 10-12% margin too.
    But it's not crazy at this value...
 
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