Don't mind my terrible calculations i am literally just a random dude with no background in finance and this is not advice.
IF H1 revenue holds true again (2.3 mil, part of which is guaranteed by MMI grant money) and the TWI sale is finalised and paid for in this financial year we could see FY revenue at ~7.1M (2.3 + 2.3 + 2.5) which is actually fantastic considering their annual revenue was about 2 mil
Though by my calculations only about 2.6 Mil of this revenue is generated from part production.
Then i look at the cash burn which is at about 20 mil per year and is likely to increase as their revenue increases.
We then have to ask ourselves at which point do we think the company will become profitable, I think the company will need to generate about 35 mil annual revenue before we become close to it.
So we can estimate the cash burn.
~10 mil per H cost
~1.3 rev per H (not including grants and Machine sales)
~8.7 lost per H
~17.4 mil lost per year
Assuming what herbert says is correct that a JV will pay for itself within 2 years and the TWI machine will be being sold at a profit lets put the total cost at 2 mil because it is unknown the cost of effort of research and the base cost of the machine whilst they appear to be sold for 2.5 mil
So if all goes to plan Neos and Repkon might come online either next FY or the one after.
Adding ~2 mil per H combined
Likely adding some cost as well
that gives us
~7.1 Mil Rev this FY
~3-6 Mil next FY (depending when these JVs come online and no machines are sold)
~6.6 Mil the FY after (assuming both JVs have come online and no other revenue has come in)
Total = ~16.7-19.7 Mil over the next 3 years
Keeping the cost the same gives us a burn of $50 Mil (since the FY is half over)
So we get $50 Mil - 19.7 - 13 (current cash) to calculate the shortfall for the next 2 and a half FY
Which shows they will need to raise atleast 17.3 Million.
They have some options out in the wild but unless the share price reaches a certain height they will not fill.
It will definitely be necessary to do a raise each year at current cash burn rates unless they suddenly sell a bunch of machines
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