Marcus: "..if the West want control the Browns Range resource...

Marcus: "..if the West want control the Browns Range resource they will need to provide a funding solution to allow for a recapitalisation and restructure of the shareholders. I'm not in favor of penalising the existing Chinese shareholders who supported the company through the lean years, if they are to be bought out they need to be paid out at a level that reflects a fair value for the project, which should be easier to determine once the Wolverine DFS is released."

Directs our attention to a key question for NTU holders: What is Wolverine/Browns Range worth? Broadly, the orebody (NTU holders) is worth built mine value less the mine construction cost with an order of magnitude estimate of $A500m. Easy, huh! There are a few variables.

How much western government support is coming for the highest grade, Dy Tb rich, mine supplying ILU's REE refinery, itself the beneficiary of a concessional $A1.2b Australian Government loan?

Critical Minerals Development Program funding of $A5.9m for resource definition drilling and up to $A30m in total is but one example of what may be possible. NAIF has confirmed NTU meets the criteria for loan money. An additional finance source, Export Finance Australia, has been 'engaged'.

Who will be the owners of NTU? It looks a foregone conclusion it won't be Yuxiou Fund and it's Chinese associates for more than 5%. If the excess, say 15%, is on-sold to ILU, giving it effective control, TO'L & team will have the opportunity and incentive to offer a lean, mean deal to NTU holders.

The ILU supply deal includes the option for ILU to subscribe a further $A13.8m after FID at no more than 6c a share and up to $38.9m after that.

Will NTU SP double to 6c on FID? If government is sufficiently generous with debt funds, given the global strategic value of Dy Tb, it will. Just look at the vigorous language of Labor elder statesman Kim Beasley as a guide.

NTU is up 16.6% to 3.4c at the close. Long may it run.

Ash