Hugely disappointing outcome for IBX. Disappointing partially because the recent see-saw
ride did seemingly give some grounds for measured optimism. Disappointing because
IBXOA was a potential 'means' to a much bigger 'end', and while the much bigger 'end' is
still there, we now have one less 'means' (if/when IBXOA expires) to achieve it,
Disappointing because completed trials were important for retail sentiment in the company
and management, particularly after the events that Covid delivered. And of course,
disappointing because a win is always better than a loss. But context, as ever, is important.
However, harsh as it sounds, after the fact, IBX didn't perform to the expectations (initially)
set by the company. Of course, while we all tacitly acknowledge the risk, most of us are
typically conditioned to focus disproportionately on the reward. Until we get that reality check.
Some have always understood and accepted the risks, while others have only truly
appreciated these risks with the passage of time and the unfolding of events. Each of us
needs to only answer to ourselves as to whether our assessment of risk and reward at various
points on the IBX journey, matched reality.
Many have/will revisit their rationale, appetite, and tolerances. That decision, of course, is
better served by not just getting a better appreciation of the actual risks, and one's genuine
tolerance for it....but also an updated understanding of the potential rewards. And in that
sense, the potential reward size is materially unchanged. The big potential value for IBX
remains. And it entirely remains with the trial/s continuing to return successful results.
However, speaking only for myself....the time will come to reassess the risk/reward scenarios
associated with this.
I am not where I expected to be at this stage of my investment here. But I feel that I need to
be objective and rational to see myself through this. It's going to be a longer hold than I
anticipated, but for the moment I can still see the potential here and therefore believe we
can still get there.
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