TSO 0.00% 3.9¢ tesoro gold ltd

@GT55 It is a sliding scale which depends on the various factors...

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    @GT55 It is a sliding scale which depends on the various factors which will influence valuations

    • Size and Grade of the final resource at Ternera (Directors have telegraphed 2Moz this year so we'll see)
    • District Target Discovery - To achieve the best/optimal valuation there needs to be a drill confirmed discovery with significant intercepts. The target drill test holes need to also provide a certain level of confidence that it's an open pittable target, decent grade, scale 0.5Moz-1.5Moz etc
    • The Agreed $ the JV will get from the exit. The agreed value will be come out of the total implied valuation of the asset and the remaining will go to the Listed Co.
    • The Goldfields Shareprice. If a TO comes, it'll likely be an all scrip offer. If the bid comes around a time when their SP is trading at all time highs then maybe the valuations will be alittle more generous.
    • Current sentiment within the small cap sector and whether or not the market re-rates/influences the SP i.e. if a bull market returns and all stocks runs, there will be no TO.

    Where i personally think valuations will be is highlighted in the yellow cells based on the above

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4987/4987500-aacd2ee07a8166049aa9f50a8663b306.jpg

    Timing wise, is an interesting question. There are alot of things at play here obviously with Goldfields doing their thing on the field and the Directors wanting to hit the performance option milestone for the 2Moz. But, I also think the progress of CPO and when they run out of cash will also have something to do with timing.

    I personally think CPO in their eyes is a much better, longer term strategic asset they have actually made a sizeable copper discovery with decent grades in the world's best and and largest copper mining jurisdiction. The problem is that CPO's association with TSO has completely killed off all sentiment in the company and they are essentially now stranded, with inability to raise meaningful capital to progress exploration works. They'll need the directors & other large shareholders which are also TSO shareholders to cornerstone their next raise. That will only happen after a TSO exit. CPO will run out of cash completely in early Q3. A TSO exit will also reverse sentiment in CPO.

    So timing wise, sometime around mid year would make most sense. If i'm wrong, won't really mean much for TSO and with the absence of positive sentiment of improved inflows, TSO will probably remain trading around the same, so nothing new. But, If i'm wrong then CPO is royally screwed and not only will they remain stranded but the Directors would have bungled the greatest opportunity to advance a great copper asset at bull market type copper valuations.

    So, if logic & various circumstances prevails, around mid year and IMO valuation to sit somewhere in the range mentioned above.
    Last edited by Corgi: 21/01/23
 
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