We won't have to wait long to see how it plays out. From memory,...

We won't have to wait long to see how it plays out. From memory, the first loan repayment is due on 30th Sept.
MIN have previously agreed to extend that, up until Australian Garnet is cash positive. The complexity is that a) it should be cash positive by now, and b) under the scrutiny on governance, would MIN really extend it again?
The current loan is circa $130m over a 5-year term with interest @ 8.125%. So RDG need to find > $7m a quarter to service that. That's not impossible but would need the garnet and Centrals revenue streams to be going gang busters.
In their last annual report RDG highlighted the risk involved with their ability to pay off the loan. They stated that a further extension of time from MIN, a sale of one or more assets, a capital raise, or a revised debt facility were options. The clock is ticking......
Irrespective of that though, I believe that the decision will be taken out of RDG's hands and depend entirely on MIN and how they best believe they can get a return on their substantial investment (return of loan funds and any appreciation on their significant volume of shares). For consideration of the loan, they hold security on the assets of Mn Battery Minerals Pty Ltd (Mn Battery Minerals) (formerly Comcen Pty Ltd) and Resource Development Group Limited, as well as a mining mortgage over Mn Battery Minerals mineral assets. If I'm reading that correctly, they don't hold security over Australian Garnet??
So, a few ways this could roll - all just my opinion of course

• Business as usual- RDG has had a good quarter and makes the first repayment. Potentially also gets a JV partner to progress the HPMSM study
• MIN call in the loan (bring in the Administrators) and take over the assets they have security over. If Australian Garnet is not included in that, there is not a particularly good return on investment for them, and their shares become essentially worthless
• MIN does a takeover offer for RDG. This probably makes most sense - get 100% ownership of all the assets and sell them off over the next 12 months. The food for thought is, what would a takeover offer look like to get that last 33% ?

All in my own opinion