My prediction (and I would be very happy with it being achieved, even though it is lower than the forecast from @Calvo above) is as follows:
- CY2020 EBITDA = $106M AUD
- CY2021 EBITDA = $131M AUD to $140M AUD
- CY2022 EBITDA = $162M AUD to $185M AUD
The low end of the range assumes 24% growth in EBITDA YoY. The high end of the range assumes 32% growth in EBITDA YoY. Astute observers will note that this is a +/- 4% range from APX's guidance around growing earnings in line with industry growth (28% p.a.)
Anyone who is expecting more than $140M AUD for CY2021 EBITDA is perhaps a bit too optimistic. Or perhaps I am being conservative by discounting the power of operating leverage and expanding margins. Regardless, in my eyes, anything above $140M EBITDA for CY2021 would be a spectacular performance (that would be up 32%+ YoY).
If the midpoint of the above EBITDA ranges are hit, on current prices, APX would be trading on 19x CY21 EV/EBITDA and15x CY22 EV/EBITDA (noting $126M in cash as at 30th June 2020 and a market cap as it stands today at $2.8 billion AUD).
Is that too high? Perhaps. Historically, across the markets as a whole, the general rule of thumb is that EV/EBITDA under 10x is attractive and undervalued. However, that is for the market as a whole, not the tech sector, which commands higher multiples due to stronger growth.
Worldwide, the average value of EV/EBITDA in the technology & telecommunications sector as of 2020 was a multiple of approximately 21.1x, an increase from 15.1x in 2019.
- Afterpay is at 971x EV/EBITDA.
- Tesla is at 128x EV/EBITDA.
- Wisetech Global is at 102x EV/EBITDA.
- Xero is at 95x EV/EBITDA.
- Altium is at 58x EV/EBITDA.
- NextDC is at 55x EV/EBITDA
- SEEK is at 42x EV/EBITDA.
- CarSales.com is at 32x EV/EBITDA.
- Appen is currently on 25x EV/EBITDA (assuming $106M AUD in CY20 EBITDA)
Today, there are some examples of eye-watering high levels of EV/EBITDA in the tech sector, but APX, at current prices, is not one of them.
T.E.P.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- APX
- Ann: Notification of Earnings Release and Conference Call
Ann: Notification of Earnings Release and Conference Call, page-4
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 34 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add APX (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$1.54 |
Change
0.135(9.64%) |
Mkt cap ! $337.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.45 | $1.54 | $1.44 | $7.746M | 5.196M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 39000 | $1.53 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.54 | 74253 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 36055 | 1.525 |
3 | 22768 | 1.520 |
5 | 45852 | 1.515 |
13 | 87304 | 1.510 |
4 | 36025 | 1.505 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.530 | 715 | 1 |
1.535 | 82107 | 8 |
1.540 | 48186 | 9 |
1.545 | 6352 | 3 |
1.550 | 108516 | 11 |
Last trade - 10.54am 26/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
APX (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
SER
STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
David DeTata, Managing Director
David DeTata
Managing Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online