My numbers are a little more conservative than yours, around...

My numbers are a little more conservative than yours, around $30m EBITDA but I assume just over breakeven on domestic SA and $100/t SA export margin. I agree with the sentiment though, at present the monthly EBITDA is around 25% of the share price.

It is good to see SA exports creeping up, every 10kt counts as it is worth about $1m EBITDA in my calcs.

December will be interesting at BA as so far this quarter there have only been 335kt of sales but the Q2 forecast is 575kt , so they are expecting 240kt of sales in the month. This may just be one extra boat but the timing of the shipment will make a big deal to the first 6 months. i.e. one 80kt boat is worth about $10m EBITDA. I think this is what they are getting at when the keep saying 'should forecast revenue be achieved'. So 'if achieved' we could be looking at a $40m EBITDA month in December or one third of the current market value in a single month.....