You can't say that Novonix can definitely scale to huge size in next to no time. Even Tesla themselves can't scale to keep up with demand at the moment!
I know NVX say they can grow by the contract, but if they are lucky enough to gain several supply contracts with Tier 1 manufacturers, they will struggle to keep up - just a fact of business.
That is not saying they can't scale up dramatically over 5 years - I know they hope to get to 100k tonnes by '2026-2030'. How much is one or two major contracts going to need per year? What if SK, Sanyo and Samsung all want to fund their US Gigafactories with NVX? Will they wait 5-10years or look elsewhere for their resources as they need them sooner rather than later?
Isn't Sanyo's MOU on the condition that they can show the ability to scale and keeping the quality? They have to wait until NVX produce enough to prove this...
Perhaps some Battery producers will by smaller quantities for the first few year - eg 5000t to use in the high end products and other graphite from Japan/China for the rest of their batteries. That is until Novonix can supply them all...
So get annoyed all you like, but if Novonix is fortunate to get a number of Tier 1 contracts in a short space of time, they will struggle to fulfill the huge sizes in the short to medium term.
I would SO love to be wrong on this point and see several 20k-30k contracts in the coming year and being able to supply in 12-18months!
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