In normal times, NWH should have a PER of say 15, which is just...

In normal times, NWH should have a PER of say 15, which is just average, but good for an infrastructure and mining services company, which NWH is. With a normalised EPS of 21c for FY20, the SP should be 21 x 15 = $3.15, or $3.00 as a round number. However, that is a trailing EPS, it will not take long before folk switch to the forward-looking EPS, because NWH's future that counts, not its past.

Select any normalised forward-looking EPS and any PER that you think is apt, and you would end up with a 12-month forecast. At the high end, 27c EPS gives a target share price of $0.27 x 15 = $4.05.

If NWH simply holds its NPAT/Revenue margin, then, using the mid-point of the $2.2b – $2.3b guidance, the NPAT could be 21c x 2.25/2 =,23.62 cents, which times 15 is $3.54. There is no reason why NWH cannot improve the NPAT margin, and I expect to see as much.

The Mr Micawber in me suggests we could see my original $4.00 by December, and the Grinch in me suggests $3.50. By December investors would have switched to a forward-looking frame of mind, and what they learn from Announcements in the next four months would make a material impression on investor sentiment.