NWH 1.20% $3.29 nrw holdings limited

This stock is a severe value trap for retail buyers. If you are...

  1. 11,116 Posts.
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    This stock is a severe value trap for retail buyers. If you are buying based on asset values etc, even if on paper these look very compelling, they are irrelevant unless there is a likely catalyst for realising that value. There is a good reason Warren Buffett stopped buying cigar butts.

    The work in hand and even the value of work currently under tender is a bit more important, as that leads to cashflow. Asset values can bleed away for years. The market wants a (say) 15% return on its money too for something like this. Also there are big contingent liabilities in retrenching staff and big costs in maintaining equipment and capabilities. And if NWH want to sell all of their gear - everybody else probably will as well, so you could possibly value that at 50% of BV or less with current market sentiment. Some of it may well turn out to be unsaleable altogether at any price similar to BV.

    $100 (locked up in a listed business) at a 15% discount rate, that is expected to deliver a 0% return over five years is only worth $44 today for example.

    I'm not saying NWH is not a bargain, just that book value or asset values alone are misleading and mostly irrelevant. the outlook is nearly everything.

    Good luck
 
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