Many including myself have warned of the significant political risk coming coal's way. Writing was on the wall when Labor was elected. Here it is in writing.
I would venture that all things being equal the headwinds brought about by political risk over coming weeks/months will be FAR stronger than any perceived geopolitical risk benefits that have occurred due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The implied spot curve continues to flatten/turn down throughout 2023/24... anyone who was cruncking numbers based upon ICE of $300+ better reduce that input substantially.
Political risks to remain longer and strengthen for WHC, Russian war to fizzle out beforehand. The bet is that simple.
Ann: NSW coal reservation scheme, page-11
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