Ann: NTC Investor Update Presentation , page-5

At half time they were probably assuming the dollar would not be staying up towards the end of financial year. It was a sound assumption. If it does keep up the government will not have much revenue from exports this year.

Now they are assuming it will stay at 92c, which is conservative but also a sound assumption given the reserve bank hinted it can not do much about it at the moment.

As you noted it has probably been priced in, crazy though, if the dollar falls a bit and Netcomm make their 100m+ next year then the profit next year could be close to today's market cap. Although I think they are hinting they may need to use money to buy another factory or so if all goes well.