Ann: Nufarm updates FY23 outlook, page-5

Got this in an email today ...

Friday, 29 September 2023

NUF - NUFARM LIMITED

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) - Macquarie observes the global environment for agricultural chemicals is tough yet Nufarm is relatively resilient. The company has downgraded guidance to a fall in FY23 EBITDA of -2-4%, to $430-440m, which the broker notes compares to global peers declining -20% on average.

It is a case of a "very strong" seeds performance and focus on higher margin products that has insulated the business to some degree and, over the longer term, the broker considers the seeds potential is undervalued. Outperform rating. Target is $6.25.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $1.53 If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 42.7%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 41.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.37. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.1, implying annual growth of 48.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.3, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources