I wasn't expecting to reply, but I view this now as a discussion, not an argument.
I agree with almost everything you're saying, except the part about me thinking that I am accurately gauging sales - I've attempted to state the opposite several times, although I can't comment on how clear that's been. I believe Best Buy sales are of far more relevance than Nuheara's webstore. The only dots I've attempted to connect on that front are that Best Buy went from 'not available' to 'in stock' in the same 2 hour window that Nuheara's inventory decreased by exactly 200 units, and they were out of stock again 2 days later.
We only got an announcement two days ago that the all backorders have been fulfilled, so all the units leaving the Nuheara's warehouse up until this point could just as easily be explained by that.
Correct or not, my intention is simply to establish a baseline, all the while expecting (read: hoping) that the actual sales volume will be much higher. If the Q4 report falls below my minimum expectation, then I may have to reassess my investment. You may have a point though that I should be keeping my assumptions to myself.
The only certainty I feel that can be gleamed from the data I've collected is that Flex are dispatching weekly shipments, and that at Nuheara's current market presence, they have enough supply to meet demand. I believe the problems Nuheara had trying to fulfil backorders while also stocking retailers were always a funding issue, and never an issue of Flex's capacity. The added complexity of establishing a new dispatch system didn't seem to help the situation either, with all the shipping mix-ups early on.
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